Beginner: Deception/Recognising Patterns

Courtesy of players Enigma, Losermaker and Fks from Stratego.com's forums

Overview
Deception' in Stratego can take many forms, but really it can be simplified to a single idea: removing your opponent's ability to recognize common patterns in your gameplay.

Common Stratego Patterns
So, the first thing you need to do is understand and recognize what common Stratego gameplay patterns are (particularly with respect to players at a certain skill level). 'Patterns' can take the form of the initial location of a piece, the location of one piece in relation to another, or the timing in which a piece is moved. Here are some examples of common patterns: Understanding these and other common patterns is essential and can only be developed by playing many games. Once you learn the common patterns, two things will happen: first, you will recognize the moves of weaker opponents more easily, and second, you will be able to add deception to your game by simply doing the opposite of the common patterns your opponent will be expecting (such as those listed above).
 * A low ranked piece guarded by a piece 2 or 3 ranks higher (ie. a captain (6) protected by a colonel (8))
 * A flag surrounded by three bombs in the shape of a tripod
 * A spy placed behind the lake next to a general (9)
 * A marshal (10) placed next to a colonel (8) or major (7)
 * You capture your opponent's spy, and on your next turn you move your marshal (10)

Beginners (0-400)

 * Several bombs in the front 2 rows (sometimes 3 or more)
 * Many scouts in the front 2 rows
 * At least one piece is trapped by bombs (commonly a 4 used as a flag decoy)
 * Pieces are easily trapped (player doesn't understand the two square rule, etc)
 * Setups are not strong (flag is easy to get to or strong pieces are left unguarded)
 * Chases
 * Lottos indiscriminately

Intermediate (400-700)

 * Understands the 2 square rule, sometimes doesn't understand chasing
 * Most bombs in the back 2 rows (2 bombs in the front 2 rows)
 * Strong setups that are predictable (pieces are always defended)
 * Occasionally bluffs
 * Frequent mistakes with game play
 * Frequently forgets pieces
 * Lottos can be random and incorrectly timed

Advanced (700-1000)

 * Most bombs in the back 2 rows, 1 bomb in the front 2 rows
 * Strong setups that can be deceptive (pieces are sometimes not defended)
 * Bluffs frequently
 * Occasional mistakes with basic game movements
 * Occasionally forgets pieces (revealed or moved)
 * Occasionally takes unnecessary risks
 * Knows when to lotto, sometimes hits bombs

Elite (> 1000 and/or win PCT > 90%)

 * Most bombs in the back 2 rows, 1 bomb in the front 2 rows
 * Strong setups that are deceptive
 * Flag surrounded by bombs
 * Very rarely makes mistakes with basic game movements
 * Rarely forgets pieces (revealed or moved)
 * Knows when and where to lotto, rarely hits bombs
 * Takes risks at the right time
 * Figures out pieces before they are revealed.

Bomb Patterns
The most important factor to consider is knowledge of your opponent. If you are familiar with your opponent, there is a general rule to know: past play predicts future play. In other words, your opponent is likely to do the same thing he did last time. The reason for this is that generally speaking, human brains are wired to seek consistency. Stronger opponents understand this and will try to change to be more deceptive.

If you have an unfamiliar opponent, then you are looking for pattern recognition and stereotyping of skill level (i.e. what do most players of a given skill level do?).

Here are some examples of what the average player might do:
 * Bombs next to and/or in front of lieutenants, sergeants, and miners
 * Bombs not next to spy or scout
 * Bombs not next to each other
 * 2 or 3 bombs surrounding flag
 * More bombs on the side opposite the marshal
 * More bombs on the weak side of the setup (away from both marshal and general)
 * More bombs in the back row than other rows
 * Creating a flag decoy by surrounding a sergeant with bombs
 * Using bombs to divide the board

See the link below for a setup analysis of thousands of Stratego games played, which shows which piece placements are most likely (e.g. flag in the back row).

https://stratego.wikia.com/wiki/Advanced:_Stratego_Setup_Analysis

Bluff tactics
You can also bluff with 2 lower pieces
 * When the opponent moves towards the passive piece, you will move away and your opponent might think the active piece is a strong piece
 * When the opponent kills the active piece, your opponent might think your passive piece is a strong one.