Intermediate: Avoiding Bombs

Also see Stratego Setup Analysis page

Based on player Enigma's Stratego.com forum post

Knowledge of opponent
The most important factor to consider is  knowledge of your opponent. If you are familiar with your opponent, there is a general rule to know:  past play predicts future play. In other words, your opponent is likely to do the same thing he did last time. The reason for this is that generally speaking, human brains are wired to seek consistency. Stronger opponents understand this and will try to change to be more deceptive.

Pattern Recognition
If you have an  unfamiliar  opponent, then you are looking for pattern recognition and stereotyping of skill level (i.e. what do  most  players of a given skill level do?).

Here are some examples of what the  average  player might do:
 * Bombs next to and/or in front of lieutenants, sergeants, and miners
 * Bombs not next to spy or scout
 * Bombs not next to each other
 * 2 or 3 bombs surrounding flag
 * More bombs on the side opposite the marshal
 * More bombs on the weak side of the setup (away from both marshal and general)
 * More bombs in the back row than other rows
 * Creating a flag decoy by surrounding a sergeant with bombs
 * Using bombs to divide the board

Despy's contribution on same forum
This is also something that I struggle with in end-game - speaking for the third row, I'd suppose bombs are more likely to be behind the lakes or along the board edges, but probably in silver, and certainly in gold and platinum, people often play with unexpected bomb formations. For instance, seeing two bombs side-by-side is to an extent unexpected, but not at all a rare encounter in many of the games I've played.

One thing I would note despite it's obvious nature, is that more often than not players will keep more pieces unmoved where their flag is - so for example if you think they have a 3-bombed flag somewhere behind a lake, where behind one lake is one unmoved piece in the third row and behind the other are two unmoved pieces in the third row, it's probably more profitable to attack the more populated side.

Another consideration would be whether/where bombs have been placed in the first two rows - if someone has a wall (2+) of bombs in say, the second row, you can probably lotto behind them in the third row.

Also, pay close attention to the reactions of your opponent when you bring down unknown pieces. Every unknown piece has some possibility of being a miner, so if your opponent is very careful not to let an unknown piece get near a certain area, it could be a hint that the flag is on that side.

In the end I think it really needs to be evaluated on a case by case basis, both based on the layout of what remains on the board, and on the piece origins that you can remember. One of the primary considerations in bomb placement is to not restrict your movement too much - so if for example you diffused a bomb in the second row, and found a lieutenant behind it in the third row, it's pretty much guaranteed that the pieces to the left and right of that lieutenant are not both bombs (no sane person is going to put three bombs around a 3rd row lieutenant).